Syria Monthly Report

Summary

In the aftermath of the Arab League Summit, many of Syria’s Arab neighbors have been clear about their expectations of Damascus in their moves toward normalization with the Syrian government. Discussions have included the preservation of Syria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, combating illicit narcotics activity, and increasing Arab efforts to find a solution to the Syrian conflict. The government’s capability to bring about these changes remains limited, particularly with opposition from Western governments, and the continuation of opposition against Assad and sanctions against his affiliates.

In government-held areas, the Syrian pound continues to fluctuate, with a steady downward depreciation undermining any attempts by the Central Bank to stabilize foreign currency reserves and black market exchange rate. A visit by Ibrahim Raisi, the Iranian president, to Damascus, in which a number of military and economic agreements were brokered has reinforced the Syrian–Iranian relationship, important to Iran because of the need to broker regional alliances.

In the northeast, wheat and barley farmers are dissatisfied with the new purchase price for the crops set by the Autonomous Administration. They say the higher purchase price is eroded by the continuous depreciation of the Syrian pound, while expensive transportation and production inputs, and inefficient delivery mechanisms put their profits at risk. The closure (and subsequent reopening 25 days later) of the Semalka–Fishkhabour border crossing between northeast Syria and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq highlights intra-Kurdish tension, and had a knock-on effect on commercial activity and humanitarian activities.

In the northwest, wildfires spread throughout the region, caused by dry, hot conditions, open fires in IDP camps, discarded cigarette butts in agricultural fields and shelling by government and Russian forces. The Syrian Civil Defence struggles to contain wildfires in spring and summer, with limited resources and extensive land to cover. Protests against HTS for the arrest of members of Hizb al-Tahrir, a global non-violent political party, spread throughout Idleb and Aleppo. Arrests are in line with HTS actions to remove political (and military) threats in their areas of control, and also to demonstrate opposition to extremist groups to the international community.