Syria Monthly Report

Summary

President Bashar al-Assad presided over the launch of the South Middle Area Gas Production Plant, a facility that was reportedly built by the Russian engineering company Stroytransgaz in Homs. The president has attempted to increase domestic and industrial gas supplies by increasing domestic production (by opening new plants), securing gas import tenders (as seen recently in meetings with Algerian officials), and following through on its energy partnerships (for example, with existing contracts with Russia). However, currently these measures have only led to a less than 1% increase in gas supply, from 11.1m to 11.2m cubic meters per day.

Settlements have been taking place in As-Sweida, in an apparent attempt by Damascus to bridge a gap between the government and local communities, to minimal effect. Ongoing fuel shortages, import restrictions and unhelpful economic policies have further impacted prices throughout south and central Syria.

In the northeast, civil unrest has been seen throughout Administration-held areas. Strikes and protest have meant the Administration has had to increase the cost of travel routes to appease bus drivers, and increase employees’ salaries to prevent further strikes. Delays in diesel deliveries to agricultural workers have meant disruption to farmers, while high fuel costs are also making it dificult for them to afford proper irrigation.

There has been a significant change in the control of fuel in opposition-controlled areas in October. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) intervened in clashes between two factions of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), and formed an alliance with Al-Hamzah Division. The intervention looks to be a calculated plan to take control of a key fuel route into Idleb, the Al-Hamran crossing on the outskirts of Jarabulus. The crossing was controlled by the Al-Jabha Al-Shamiyah (a main component of the SNA’s Third Corps), also affiliated with the SNA, however was seized by Al-Hamzah Division alongside HTS. Economically, control of the crossing is likely to yield extensive profits for HTS. However, the Al-Jabha Al-Shamiyah continues to have authority over the refining and transportation of the fuel; continued delivery into Idleb is now dependent on the unlikely outcome of good relations between the two groups.

Teachers have stopped striking in Aleppo, after six weeks. Their demands were met only partially, as strikes broke up following the clashes, after increased threats of dismissal, and with the lack of ability of officials in Aleppo to instigate change – the education sector in Aleppo is under Turkish authority, governed from across the border in neighboring provinces.