Syria Monthly Report

Summary

The conflict between Israel and Palestinian militant factions threatened to spill over into Syria, with shelling reported in the occupied Golan Heights and in strategic locations in southern Syria. The newly formed Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella term for Iran-backed militias, attacked International Coalition bases in northeast Syria throughout October, eventually forcing the US to retaliate with an airstrike against facilities belonging to the militias in Deir-ez-Zor. The attacks are largely seen to be posturing by actors with geopolitical stakes in the region rather than a signal of regional escalation.

In south and central Syria, the Syrian government proposed an initial draft for its 2024 budget of SYP 35.5 trn. The budget is nominally 115% higher than the SYP 16.5 trn allocated for 2023, but 25% lower in dollar value – this is seen as Damascus’ indirect acknowledgment of the steep inflation rate in 2023 and an indication of the shrinking economy. Also in government-held areas, a new organization called the National Bloc was set up in October to represent the anti-government protests in As-Sweida. It aims to unify and coordinate participants and provide a platform for discussion. The protest movement needs to regroup to regain momentum, with demonstrators flagging slightly (they have been ongoing for almost three months), and international media attention focused on the conflict in Gaza.

In northeast Syria, there have been delays in the distribution of subsidized diesel and fuel for heating. Locals are unlikely to be able to have enough to keep warm in the winter. In Deir-ez-Zor, the Syrian Democratic Forces and Autonomous Administration announced measures to address long-standing grievances between them and their residents. The Administration held a conference that included tribal and community leaders to discuss enhancing civic engagement and strengthening administrative and military structures. A closing statement pledged reforms, but failed to reveal a concrete road map to achieve them.

Government forces continued to bomb opposition-held areas in northwest Syria throughout October, launching strikes on vital service facilities, hospitals and schools in Lattakia, Idleb and Aleppo, killing at least 70 people, and injuring 338. Health services and education have been interrupted, economic activity was effectively shut down, and displacement is at its highest level in four years – the Syrian Salvation Government and humanitarian organizations are working hard to help residents amid funding and resource shortages.