Syria Monthly Report

Summary

The different governance and security actors throughout Syria continue to deal with the aftermath of the 6 February earthquake. Across the country, there have been reports of aid appropriation, chaos in distribution and inequitable allocation to beneficiaries. The response in Damascus was centered around the collection of local and foreign humanitarian aid, which has largely been well-organized and centralized, however distribution has been chaotic. In the northeast, aid delivery has been hampered by competing political interests, particularly between the Autonomous Administration and Turkish-backed areas. An aid convoy sent by the Administration was blocked from entering the northwest by the SNA, while both sides accuse the other of exploiting the disaster for political gain. In the northwest the destruction of lives, homes and livelihoods is vast, and lack of coordination between humanitarian, administrative and military actors in the response is adding to the chaos.

Signs of a thaw in Arab states’ attitudes towards the Syrian government have been accelerated by the need for humanitarian support post-earthquake. Arab countries were swift to respond to the disaster, making financial pledges and sending cargo planes with aid to government-held areas. Kuwait, Iraq, and Oman opened airspace to ensure the ongoing delivery of aid into Syria. Jordan and Egypt sent diplomatic missions to Damascus, the first since 2011, while the UAE increased outward demonstrations of support and Tunisia floated re-opening its embassy in Damascus.

The Syrian Central Bank continues to try to raise foreign currency, this time through increasing the exchange rate for remittances entering the country – recipients are more likely to use official channels to exchange money if the rates are comparable to the black market, which they now are. Deaths of individuals collecting desert truffles magnify the shifting security dynamics in the Syrian Badia – ISIS has been largely blamed for attacks on truffle hunters, however on closer scrutiny, the situation is not so simple. The presence of Iranian-backed armed groups, and government security forces lead to questions over who would gain most from the attacks.

A visit by Mike Milley, the highest-ranking military officer in the US, to northeast Syria has angered both Damascus and Ankara – the Syrian government called it a “flagrant violation of sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the Turkish government demanded an explanation from its US embassy. The US explained that the visit was to review the US mission in the northeast and assess the safety of US troops. The US remains committed to combatting ISIS, which launched several attacks across northern governorates in February.

Finally, the formation of a new military group in northern Aleppo has intimations of further efforts by HTS to expand into Turkish-backed areas. How Turkey will react remains to be seen; to date its role has been largely mediatory, having not come under significant pressure as yet.