Syria Monthly Report

Summary

Developments in economic and political relations with Damascus signal further momentum toward normalization of the Assad government by Arab states. Saudi Arabia is the most recent country to consider reestablishing diplomatic ties, and has floated the idea of inviting Bashar al-Assad to the Arab summit in Riyadh in May. Jordan is pushing for an Arab-led peace initiative to resolve the Syrian conflict – the initiative has gained support across the Arab world. Western countries are standing firm against the any attempts to normalize relations with the Syrian government.

The Syrian Arab Red Crescent is trying to streamline aid distribution by asking beneficiaries to confirm and update their personal information in its head offices in Dar’a. Unfortunately, these offices are close to government checkpoints, meaning individuals wanted by the security or military agencies are unlikely to risk making the trip into the city, for fear of either detention or conscription.

Food prices in Damascus rose ahead of Ramadan, and look set to continue to increase. The government has introduced a new subsidized food basket, and added chickpeas and bulgar wheat to the smart card system, to help households, with limited success. The Central Bank is again trying to increase foreign currency revenues; this time by allowing traders to use their own dollar reserves to fund imports, and requiring international organizations to pay for fuel in dollars.

Syrian traders in Aleppo appear to be cautious of the growing presence and influence of Iran-backed business owners and militia who have reportedly been expanding their presence in the city. This has come at the expense of the city’s traders who view the growing presence as a threat to their influence, economic interests, and a nuisance to their commercial activities.

SDF security campaigns, ostensibly necessary to combat ISIS, have drawn criticism for also appearing to justify arrest and detention of detractors of the SDF and the Autonomous Administration. The relationship between civilians and the security forces are increasingly strained. Torrential rains have flooded northern Syria, damaging private property, infrastructure, agricultural lands and destroying shelters in IDP camps, in areas already impacted by the earthquake on 6 February.

The Barzani Charitable Foundation’s provision of aid in opposition-held northwest Syria exposes the tangled and multi-layered loyalties of Kurdish political and security actors, heavily influenced by regional Kurdish dynamics. The killing of four Kurdish civilians in Jandairis during Newroz celebrations has exacerbated civil unrest and disrupted security dynamics in Turkish-controlled areas – residents called for Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to step in to control security in the immediate aftermath, and during the funeral, to which the group blithely obliged.